This week, the two major awards organizations pointed towards a few notable, key differences in what was being given top honors, etc. One can argue the Writers Guild of America and their constant ineligibility rulings did play a factor in RaMell Ross’s experimental drama, Nickel Boys taking the top honor in the end, as did the film’s quality and relevancy, but Sean Baker’s Anora taking WGA original was not just a sign of this branch’s love for the film, but the America guild voter uniting behind Baker’s film as the project they want to show most represents who they are as people.
It’s a fascinating dynamic, one that has become far more apparent in recent years (Everything Everywhere All At Once pulling a guild sweep while nosediving with BAFTA voters, Green Book losing to Roma but the guilds pulling out for it), with SAG in particular becoming the defining factor of it all, as we will most likely see this week.
The main take away however is that the BAFTAS did what they always do, and solidified some races, while outright confusing others. The tech categories in particular, plus the supporting races, feel absolutely sewn up as final voting is occurring. Zoe Saldana and Kieran Culkin feel utterly unstoppable, having achieved frontrunner position as early as September for some people, and never really leaving the top 1-2 position.
Adapted Screenplay feels solidly in Conclave’s favor, though Ross’s script is likely the number 2, while Original Screenplay is all over the place with CCA going for The Substance, WGA going for Anora, and Bafta going for A Real Pain. Gut instinct suggests Anora is favored as the strongest film in the Best Picture race, but it’s one that might be more competitive than some think.
Best Actor feels like firmly Brody’s to lose while Chalamet hovers behind him, while Best Actress was once thought to be Demi Moore’s narrative going the distance, is now firmly a two person race against Mikey Madison with Fernanda Torres at number three.
Best Director is a race between Baker and Corbet, with the former having DGA and the latter having Globe/BAFTA, while Best Picture is one with Anora firmly in the frontrunner position but Conclave solidly the runner-up. It’s kind of funny in hindsight how the writing was on the wall that Baker and Berger’s respective films would be in it till the end (National Board of Review, ACE, and SAG do matter, after all), but if I had to say, Bakers’ film feels like the number 1 with the PGA/DGA/WGA combo signifying undeniable strength.
SAG Predictions
Arguably the most important guild/precursor when it comes to recent Oscar years, the Screen Actors guild, consisting of almost 200,000 actors and AFTRA voters, will decide what films/performances they will choose to recognize.
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
JONATHAN BAILEY / Fiyero – “WICKED”
YURA BORISOV / Igor – “ANORA”
KIERAN CULKIN / Benji Kaplan – “A REAL PAIN”
EDWARD NORTON / Pete Seeger – “A COMPLETE UNKNOWN”
JEREMY STRONG / Roy Cohn – “THE APPRENTICE”
Not much to say here that hasn’t already been said. Culkin was always going to win SAG after not having prevailed for his individual work in Succession and he has shown no weakness anywhere for his performance in Eisenberg’s dramady.
Prediction: Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
Challenger: No one
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
MONICA BARBARO / Joan Baez – “A COMPLETE UNKNOWN”
JAMIE LEE CURTIS / Annette – “THE LAST SHOWGIRL”
DANIELLE DEADWYLER / Berniece – “THE PIANO LESSON”
ARIANA GRANDE / Galinda/Glinda – “WICKED”
ZOE SALDAÑA / Rita – “EMILIA PÉREZ”
Akin to Supporting Actress, one person has dominated the entire season. Zoe Saldana is the one element of Jacques Audiard’s audacious musical that every individual has rallied behind, and SAG seems like a solid place for her to solidify the sweep. Though Emilia Perez has fallen when it comes to its potential Best Picture winning chances, Saldana remains unscathed, and only Ariana Grande feels formidable here as a challenger.
Prediction: Zoe Saldana, Emilia Perez
Challenger: Ariana Grande, Wicked
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
PAMELA ANDERSON / Shelly – “THE LAST SHOWGIRL”
CYNTHIA ERIVO / Elphaba – “WICKED”
KARLA SOFÍA GASCÓN / Emilia/Manitas – “EMILIA PÉREZ”
MIKEY MADISON / Ani – “ANORA”
DEMI MOORE / Elisabeth – “THE SUBSTANCE”
Talk about a category that is difficult to call. Demi Moore before BAFTA seemed primed to win this in a walk, and still might, as the career comeback is one that resonates with a ton of people (even those not a part of the film industry), however, it might not be enough against a guild sweeper, and honestly, are voters going to pass up Anora in Anora? If Baker’s film really is going to distance, it seems hard to love the film, and not have that transfer to Madison’s career making role. If you follow me on twitter, you know I’ve grown increasingly bearish on Madison’s chances after having dubbed her as the undeniable frontrunner from September until December, seeing the passion and love for Moore in The Substance, but the logic was the film wasn’t strong enough to carry her over the finish line. Nevertheless, the globes and cca might in fact be red herrings, as neither consists of any industry awards. It’s really an unstoppable force (Mikey Madison and Anora) vs an Immovable Option (Demi Moore’s narrative), and my gut instinct points towards Madison.
Prediction: Mikey Madison, Anora
Challenger: Demi Moore, The Substance
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
ADRIEN BRODY / László Tóth – “THE BRUTALIST”
TIMOTHÉE CHALAMET / Bob Dylan – “A COMPLETE UNKNOWN”
DANIEL CRAIG / William Lee – “QUEER”
COLMAN DOMINGO / Divine G – “SING SING”
RALPH FIENNES / Lawrence – “CONCLAVE”
Talk about a race that was once a two-header that seems to be, at least at the moment, headed for a consensus choice. For the longest time, I believed Adrien Brody would win BAFTA, Globe, and CCA but lose SAG to a more award-friendly performance, in this case, Timothee Chalamet for A Complete Unknown. However, despite winning the Set Decorators Guild and the Casting Guilds, not much has suggested Chalamet is win competitive here outside of the solid nomination haul. Brody on the other hand, has not missed a beat, was the lone win for the film at CCA, and has a career narrative.
I’m probably going to end up kicking myself in the leg for this, but I am settling on Brody going the distance here and “sweeping.” The lack of wins at CCA, GG, and BAFTA signifies ominous signs of a lack of passion for A Complete Unknown.
Prediction: Adrien Brody, The Brutalist
Challenger: Timothee Chalamet, A Complete Unknown
Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
A COMPLETE UNKNOWN
ANORA
CONCLAVE
EMILIA PÉREZ
WICKED
Talk about a category that has gone from frontrunner to frontrunner the whole season. What started off as a place where Conclave felt as if it could just prevail based on the ensemble-ness of the project, to Wicked and Emilia Perez being looked at as the progressive, crowd-pleasing musical that theater kids might get behind (and ACU as the old guard vote), has now settled potentially, as a place where Sean Baker’s Anora could win, not for any reason other than likability of film and the charming ensemble.
Guilds tend to go with the same film, and Anora has been underestimated time and time again when it comes to its guild presence. With Madison’s win, I believe SAG will anoint Baker’s film akin to Oppenheimer Everything Everywhere All At Once and Coda.
Prediction: Anora
Challenger: Conclave
Bonus:
Outstanding Action Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture
DEADPOOL & WOLVERINE
DUNE: PART TWO
THE FALL GUY
GLADIATOR II
WICKED
Prediction: The Fall Guy
Challenger: Any of the four
Watch out for Indie Spirits this week too, where I expect film twitter will be well represented and their favorites to prevail, noms are found here
If you want to follow me on twitter, the link is here and have a great week.